Growth is forecasted across New Brunswick’s construction sector, and replacing retiring workers may be challenging

/EIN News/ -- OTTAWA, Ontario, March 31, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Construction activity in New Brunswick increased in 2024, as the province’s residential sector saw growth in both the new housing and renovation components, while its non-residential construction sector saw growth in both engineering construction and the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings.

BuildForce Canada released its 2025–2034 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for the province today. Although the outlook calls for both sectors to record growth by 2034, they follow different paths.

The residential sector enters the forecast period at an elevated level due to high levels of new-home construction. Although investment in new housing is projected to cycle down to 2029, growth is strong in residential renovations throughout the decade, with the component surpassing new-housing construction as the key investment driver by 2026. Later years see demand for new housing return to growth.

Activity in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, is projected to moderate across the short-term outlook period as work passes peak activity on a large number of projects. Investment then rises significantly between 2027 and 2031 as work begins on the Mactaquac Life Achievement Project and combines with ongoing work at the proposed Irving Pulp & Paper NextGen capital improvement project.

These trends combine to elevate overall construction employment across the province by 2034. Residential employment is largely unchanged from 2024 levels, while non-residential employment is projected to rise by 6%.

It is important to note that the investment trends and employment projections presented in this scenario were developed with industry input prior to the emergence of potential trade tensions between Canada and the United States. This forecast therefore does not take into account the possible application of tariffs on Canadian exports to and imports from the United States, nor does it account for any resulting changes in trading patterns between Canada and its other key trading partners.

“Many of the trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce Canada in New Brunswick enter the forecast period under strained conditions, given the volume of work that was underway across the province’s residential and non-residential sectors in 2024,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “With investment levels rising out to 2030, the industry has the opportunity to augment recruitment in order to avoid future labour force pressures related to increased retirements.”

Growth in activity over the decade, coupled with the projected retirement of some 6,500 workers (or 20% of the 2024 labour force), could require New Brunswick’s construction industry to hire as many as 8,400 workers by 2034. The projected recruiting of some 6,700 first-time new entrants from the local population should help meet most of these requirements, but in the absence of new approaches to recruitment, the industry could still face a shortfall of some 1,700 workers by the end of the decade.

Keeping pace with demand will require a combination of strategies, including maintaining local recruitment and training efforts, particularly from groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, the hiring of workers from other industries with the required skills sets, and the recruitment of immigrants to Canada with skilled trades training or construction experience.

New registrations in New Brunswick’s 17 largest construction apprenticeship programs increased by 14% year over year in 2023, and by 32% compared to 2014. This increase was primarily driven by record new registrations in the carpenter, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanic, welder, and heavy-duty equipment technician trade programs. Program completions also saw a 15% increase in 2023, although they remain lower than the previous decade.

“Demographics in New Brunswick are now such that the provincial population is older than the national average, and population growth is entirely dependent on migration,” says Ferreira. “That means there will be greater competition for younger workers among all industries, and the construction industry must deepen its efforts to recruit from traditionally under-represented groups of workers, such as women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada to ensure its labour force remains sustainable.”

In 2024, there were approximately 3,590 women employed in New Brunswick’s construction industry. That figure represented an increase of nearly 400 workers compared to 2023. Of them, 21% worked on site, directly on construction projects. As a share of the 29,100 tradespeople employed in New Brunswick’s construction industry, however, women accounted for just 3% of the 2024 workforce.

The Indigenous population is the fastest growing population in Canada and therefore presents recruitment opportunities. In 2023, Indigenous People represented 2.6% of New Brunswick’s construction labour force. Over the past decade, the share of Indigenous People in the province’s construction workforce has remained largely unchanged. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue its recruitment efforts and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention.

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement patterns and adjusted federal immigration targets, the province is expected to welcome nearly 100,500 new immigrants between 2025 and 2034, making these individuals, if successfully recruited, a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force.

Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and new Canadians could help New Brunswick’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at ferreira@buildforce.ca or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.

This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:

Tom McGinn
Executive Director
New Brunswick Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association
506-454-5079

John-Ryan Morrison
Executive Director
Construction Association of New Brunswick
506-459-5770