I spent last week in Canada at a conference organised by a consortium of Canadian universities at York University campus. While the focus of that conference was on Latin America and the Caribbean, I want to focus on my impression of what is happening in Canada currently.
There is little doubt that Canada has been surprised, shaken and psychologically destabilised by President Trump’s aggression and his threat to make Canada the 51st state of the United States. As one presenter admitted at one of the sessions, “I can’t explain the insecurity and vulnerability I feel as a Canadian at this time ... it really is a horrible feeling and it is difficult to think of a way forward from here.”
Countries which live next to powerful, aggressive countries often feel pressured. But they find a way. Finland, Norway and Sweden all feel vulnerable and insecure with a military power like Russia sharing borders and engaging in aggressive diplomacy. The same is true of Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, and Singapore, with regard to China. But Canada never felt like that with the US. They have ever been good neighbours and friends, part of the “Five Eyes” network, with US, UK, Australia and New Zealand which collaborated and shared information, intelligence and attitudes toward matters of common interest. To Canada, the US was regarded as a mutually supportive military partner.
The current tensions are a source of shock for Canadians, who do not know what to think and how to proceed. Canada and Canadians are beginning to feel marginalised now, just like so many other developing countries have felt for decades, as big power politics plays itself out in this peculiar phase of global history.
In 2023, more than a year before the US presidential elections, I visited Canada and spoke at that time with students and young people working in various jobs and professions, and they were worried about their future. The economic realities were tough and prospects looked dim. Reasonable salaries and decent income did not translate into a desirable quality of life, nor to a secure sense about building for the future. Prices were high for everything. Rents were through the roof. Real estate prices were hardly affordable for a first-time homeowner and apartments and condos raised questions of value for money.
Crime was also a factor. Earlier immigrants in the post-World War II period and even in the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s, had done well in Canada’s multicultural experiment; and had progressed, made a life for themselves and their children, and were living the Canadian dream of a better life.
Later immigrants, some of them refugees and asylum seekers, had not integrated well; and in this harsh economic environment, ethnic gangs and mafia-type organisations, had formed, operating on the edge of the law, but also outside the law, posing a threat to orderly society. On the other hand, perhaps because of developments like these, a current of right-wing extremism, with a racist dimension, had also emerged with strength.
In 2023, it was clear Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party was in deep trouble. The personal attacks on Trudeau by Donald Trump when he became US President a year later, made it difficult for Trudeau to continue as leader of Canada, and the appeal of the Conservatives was increasing. But when President Trump posed the possibility of annexing Canada, and followed that with a stiff tariff and harsh words, he gave Trudeau an opportunity to respond strongly, on behalf of his country, which rallied citizen support around the Liberals, allowed for a hopeful and optimistic transition of leadership to Mark Carney, and paved the way for Carney to be elected Canada’s 14th Prime Minister.
All of this was facilitated by the rise of a latent Canadian nationalism which President Trump provoked. Canada is, today, summoning a will to nationalism and self-pride which it is now navigating as it faces a US hard line on the refashioning of the world order from the White House.
Carney recently stood his ground at the White House when he said, in the presence of Trump, that Canada would not ever be for sale. He also publicly rebuked King Charles for facilitating a second state visit for Trump to the UK, when King Charles is the titular head of Canada and the Commonwealth, and has said nothing on Canada’s behalf. Carney is clearly a confident and strong leader. Whether his boldness in pursuit of a summoning of will to Canada’s self-assertion proves to be valuable or injudicious, is something that will only be revealed over time.
