USTR Hearing on Chinese Maritime Practices Could Shape Future Trade Actions

April 28 Canada PM election | Mexican water shortfall | U.S. sharply increases Brazilian egg imports

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March 24, 2025 07:05 AM

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 24, 2025

— Stalemate in U.S./China relations highlighted by Sen. Daines’ Beijing visit. Sen. Steve Daines’ (R-Mont.) recent trip to Beijing underscores persistent tensions in U.S./China relations, particularly around trade and fentanyl trafficking. A close ally of Donald Trump, Daines aimed to advance trade discussions but emphasized that progress on tariffs is contingent on China tackling the flow of fentanyl precursors into the U.S. Despite meetings with Vice Premier He Lifeng and Premier Li Qiang, Daines was notably not granted an audience with President Xi Jinping — an unusual departure from past diplomatic norms. His visit yielded little progress, with looming U.S. tariffs and a potential Trump-Xi summit appearing increasingly unlikely.

The visit comes amid ongoing trade disputes that date back to Trump’s first term, as well as U.S. frustration over China’s role in fentanyl trafficking. While figures like Elon Musk have been floated as informal envoys due to their China ties, Trump has voiced skepticism due to potential conflicts of interest. With no clear breakthroughs, Daines’ trip reflects a broader diplomatic stalemate, as both nations remain at odds over critical issues.

— Canada’s Carney calls April 28 snap election amid Trump trade war crisis. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, as expected, announced a snap federal election for April 28, moving it up from the scheduled Oct. 20 date. Speaking in Ottawa, Carney declared that President Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes,” and said he needs a strong mandate to respond effectively. Carney was elected by the Liberal Party earlier this month to replace Justin Trudeau following his resignation. Carney also requested that Governor General of Canada Mary Simon, the representative of the country’s head of state, King Charles, dissolve Parliament and call for an election, adding that she agreed. Carney will go head-to-head with the Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre, Bloc Québécois’ Yves-François Blanchet and the New Democratic Party’s Jagmeet Singh.

The key will be which party leader is best to take on the Trump administration and stand up against Trump. “I share your anger and I share the worry for our future, but I also draw great resolve in knowing that we can transform the anxiety and anger into action,” Poilievre said in remarks. He said he respects the office of the President of the United States, and noted that Americans buy 75% of Canadian goods. Whoever is prime minister, he said, will have to deal with Trump, because he is going to be around for four years. “You can be respectful and firm, and I believe we have to be both. I will insist the President recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada,” Poilievre said in answer to reporters. “I will insist that he stop tariffing our nation. And at the same time, I will strengthen our country so that we can be capable of standing on our own two feet and standing up to the Americans where and when necessary. That’s what it means when I say, ‘let’s put Canada first for a change.’ ”

— USTR hearing on Chinese maritime practices could shape future trade actions. A public hearing beginning today by the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office could be quite significant in several ways, especially given the growing scrutiny over China’s maritime and trade practices. The hearing is expected to examine China’s maritime, shipbuilding, and logistics sectors — specifically whether state-led practices have led to unfair advantages or violations of trade commitments (like WTO obligations). The inquiry was initiated in response to a petition from labor unions, including the AFL-CIO, alleging that China uses state subsidies and control over key logistics infrastructure to undercut global competitors and gain an unfair edge.

The hearing and its record could form the evidentiary basis for future litigation at the WTO, or support unilateral U.S. trade enforcement, like new tariffs or sanctions under Section 301.

USTR is seeking public feedback on the plan to enact and has noted (link) that they were designed to “create leverage” for blocking China’s domination.

Facts and figures. China now builds over 50% of the world’s cargo ships by tonnage — up from just 5% in 1999, per the USTR. Japan and South Korea remain major players, but China leads. The U.S. shipbuilding industry is nearly dormant, producing only 0.01% last year. The USTR aims to revive U.S. shipbuilding, citing concerns over China’s market power in supply, pricing, and access. China’s largest shipbuilder, China State Shipbuilding Corp., criticized the U.S. proposal, calling it a violation of WTO rules.

Meanwhile, President Trump’s proposal to impose substantial fees — up to $1.5 million per vessel — on China-built or China-linked ships entering U.S. ports is causing significant disruptions across various sectors of the U.S. economy, particularly in coal and agricultural exports. The initiative, part of a broader “America First” strategy, would use the billions generated from port fees to subsidize U.S. shipyards and increase the share of American-made vessels in global trade.

The plan includes a draft executive order titled Make Shipbuilding Great Again, proposing port levies based on a ship’s Chinese ownership, construction origin, and future order plans. It also sets targets over seven years requiring U.S. exports to be increasingly carried on American-flagged vessels.

The maritime action plan must include a wide range of items, including a probe into China’s “unfair targeting of maritime logistics, and shipbuilding sectors,” the creation of a maritime security trust fund that could put money toward a shipbuilding financial incentives program for the next nine years and the creation of maritime opportunity zones to promote shipbuilding investment.

Several levies: One levy applies to each port call by a Chinese ocean carrier; a second would be assessed based on the percentage of Chinese-built ships in a carrier’s fleet; a third depends upon the percentage of the carrier’s future orders that have been placed with Chinese shipyards.

Maritime experts warn the plan is unrealistic and risks repeating the pandemic-era supply chain crisis. Without sufficient U.S.-built alternatives, the fees could create massive port congestion, raise freight costs, and harm exporters — especially in agriculture and smaller ports.

Negotiations with China ahead? The measures are needed “to create leverage to obtain the elimination” of Chinese maritime industry dominance, USTR says, signaling President Trump may be prepared to negotiate with Beijing.

Ag sector exporters will struggle to secure ocean freight for products such as corn, soybeans, and wheat. This uncertainty stems from the difficulty in determining final shipping costs under the new fee structure. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that these fees could add between $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation costs for bulk agricultural exporters, significantly eroding their competitive edge in global markets where profit margins are often minimal.

ASA notes concern. “We are extremely concerned that if this proposal goes into effect, U.S. soybeans will be effectively shut out from our global export markets,” the American Soybean Association warned in a letter (link) previewing its Monday testimony.

Dole, one of the world’s largest fruit and vegetable producers, warned that the proposal could “significantly impact” fresh produce prices for American consumers and disproportionately affect small ship owners. The company is the leading importer of bananas to the U.S. and uses its own fleet to deliver produce that can’t be grown domestically, according to its testimony letter.

Quote of note: “The hogs in China couldn’t give a damn where the soybeans come from. You’ve essentially told those exporters you’re out of business.” — Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agricultural Transportation Coalition.

“The fees will result in cost increases of hundreds of dollars per container for cargo owners at a time when they continue to face challenges and pressures in their supply chains,” the National Retail Federation’s vice president of supply chain, Jonathan Gold, wrote to the USTR. The port fees would cost the shipping industry about $20 billion a year, or an average $600 to $800 extra for each container in ocean trades such as the Trans-Pacific, said Soren Toft, chief executive of Mediterranean Shipping, the world’s biggest liner.

The proposed fees are part of the administration’s broader strategy to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding and reduce reliance on Chinese-built vessels. However, industry experts caution that the immediate effect may be increased costs for U.S. importers and exporters, leading to higher prices for consumers and potential congestion at major ports.

The oil and gas industry has also expressed concerns, suggesting that the fees could undermine the U.S.'s energy dominance by making exports of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and refined fuels less competitive.

Critics argue that the U.S. lacks the industrial base to quickly scale up ship production, citing high domestic costs, limited capacity, and protectionist policies like the Jones Act. Some shippers are already rerouting to Canadian and Mexican ports to avoid uncertainty.

Despite these challenges, there is substantial public support for reducing dependence on foreign shipbuilding. A recent poll indicates that 72% of Americans believe the U.S. should not rely on countries like China for ship construction, reflecting concerns over national security and economic independence.

Bottom line: “If they go through with the freight tariff along with reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. gets left in ‘dust’ I think, till someone has crop problems outside of the U.S.,” says Richard Crow, a commodity trader and analyst.

— Trump’s tariff gambit: Trade disruption and economic uncertainty. In a matter of months, President Donald Trump has shaken the $24 trillion global trade market by imposing sweeping tariffs on both allies like Canada and Mexico and rivals such as China. The rapid and unpredictable moves — some reversed or paused mid-course — have unsettled financial markets and raised fears of slower global growth. With plans to implement “reciprocal tariffs” starting April 2, Trump is targeting countries with large trade surpluses and barriers that disadvantage U.S. companies. Some nations have struck back with retaliatory tariffs, while others seek to negotiate and avoid an all-out trade war.

Of note: Link to our focus on the coming April 2 announcement regarding reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics provides an informative breakdown of each tariff and its potential economic impact (link).

— Cruz pushes sanctions over Mexican water shortfall. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is leading a push against Mexico over alleged violations of a 1944 treaty mandating water deliveries to U.S. farmers. Cruz is backing legislation to cut U.S. aid to Mexico by 15% if the country doesn’t meet its obligations, claiming south Texas farmers are suffering as a result. The issue prompted the State Department to withhold U.S. water shipments to Mexico for the first time and spurred USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to announce $280 million in aid. While Cruz welcomed the support, he emphasized that “the real answer is to get our damn water,” blaming Democratic inaction and praising Trump’s hardline approach as the key to enforcement.

— U.S. delegation heads to Greenland amid renewed push by Trump. Usha Vance, the second lady, will travel to Greenland this week alongside National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and other senior U.S. officials, as the Trump administration intensifies its efforts to assert influence over the Arctic island. Vance, accompanied by one of her children, will attend a national dog sled race and visit historical sites, according to a White House statement celebrating Greenlandic culture and unity.

Meanwhile, Waltz and Wright are expected to tour a U.S. military base, part of broader strategic interests in Arctic security and the Western Hemisphere. The trip comes as President Trump continues his push to gain control over Greenland — a Danish territory with autonomous governance — echoing his first-term offer to buy the island and recent remarks stating, “one way or the other, we’re going to get it.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, responding to the visit, emphasized that Denmark and Greenland had not invited the U.S. officials and reiterated that any cooperation must be grounded in “sovereignty and mutual respect.” Meanwhile, Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede said the visit was an act of “clear provocation,” amid President Trump’s continued threats to annex the territory and bring it under U.S. control for national security purposes. “What is the national security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to demonstrate power over us,” Egede said in an interview with Greenlandic newspaper Sermitsiaq on Sunday. “His mere presence in Greenland will no doubt fuel American belief in Trump’s mission — and the pressure will increase.” Jens-Frederik Nielsen, who is likely to be Greenland’s next leader, also said the timing of the visit showed “a lack of respect.”

— Easter Egg Roll sponsorship plan sparks ethics concerns. The White House is facing bipartisan backlash and criticism from ethics experts after enlisting a production firm to solicit corporate sponsorships — complete with branding opportunities — for this year’s Easter Egg Roll. According to CNN, a nine-page pitch obtained by the outlet outlines sponsorship tiers ranging from $75,000 to $200,000, offering benefits like logo placements on event signage, branded giveaways, and even access to a private White House brunch hosted by the First Lady. “This is an enterprise. This is not your grandmother’s Easter Egg Roll,” said a former official involved in planning the event, emphasizing the stark shift from tradition. The pitch, distributed by Harbinger, an event production company, includes White House and Harbinger logos and past imagery of the Trump family and media figures. Critics argue it crosses long-established lines separating public institutions from private gain.

“This would have been vetoed in about 30 seconds in my day,” said Richard Painter, former ethics counsel to President George W. Bush. “We’re not running this like a football stadium where you get all logos all over the place for kicking in money.”

Though privately funded events like the Egg Roll aren’t new, ethics watchdogs are alarmed by the scale and nature of the solicitation. Donald Sherman of CREW told CNN: “What I have not seen before is the outright solicitation and the use of the imprimatur of the White House to give corporate sponsorship.”

While Harbinger insists all money raised will go to the White House Historical Association, the use of official imagery and the branding opportunities have ignited a new round of scrutiny over the blurring of public and private interests — especially on White House grounds.

— Witkoff urges nuance on Ukraine, downplays Putin’s broader ambitions. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, speaking on Fox News Sunday, emphasized the complexity of the Ukraine conflict, stating that “there are grievances on both sides” and cautioning against viewing the war in black-and-white terms. He downplayed fears of Russian President Vladimir Putin seeking to conquer Europe, distinguishing the situation from World War II by noting the presence of NATO. Witkoff added, “I take him at his word in this sense,” and asserted that the U.S. agenda is to “stop the killing.”

— The Trump administration had the lowest success rate at the U.S. Supreme Court among modern presidents. The Trump’s administration had only a 42% success rate, which is significantly lower than both Republican and Democratic predecessors. The chart is based on research by Lee Epstein, Andrew D. Martin, and Michael Nelson, using the Supreme Court Database.

PERSONNEL

— USDA announces key FPAC appointments to advance “America First” farm agenda. USDA named key presidential appointees to lead the Farm Production and Conservation (FPAC) mission area, reinforcing its commitment to supporting American farmers under President Trump’s “America First” agenda. These leaders will oversee programs vital to disaster relief, risk management, and conservation efforts. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized FPAC’s frontline role, stating the new appointees will help deliver swift support to rural communities, cutting bureaucratic delays and boosting efficiency. New FPAC leadership appointments:

Brooke Appleton – Deputy Under Secretary for FPAC: Former VP of Public Policy at the National Corn Growers Association; USDA veteran with deep Capitol Hill experience.
Andrew Fisher – Chief of Staff, FPAC: Former legislative aide to Senators McConnell and Blunt, with a background in agriculture economics.
Aubrey Bettencourt – Chief, NRCS: Expert in water policy and sustainability; past executive at Netafim and the Almond Alliance.
Bill Beam – Administrator, FSA: Pennsylvania farmer and agribusiness leader with prior FSA leadership under the Trump Administration.
Pat Swanson – Administrator, RMA: Iowa crop insurance professional and farmer with ASA and Federal Crop Insurance Board experience.
Colton Buckley – Chief of Staff, NRCS: Rural economic development advocate and former CEO of a national conservation council.

Of note: I know several of the appointments but want to focus on Pat Swanson, the new RMA administrator. From first-hand experience, she knows the value and necessity of crop insurance, and is an excellent communicator of why more farmers should use the risk management tool, and the need for continued improvements. She brings extensive experience, having served as a director for the American Soybean Association and on the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation Board. Pat is co-owner of a crop insurance agency in southeastern Iowa and operate a seventh-generation farm near Ottumwa, raising soybeans, corn, and cattle. An Iowa State University alumna, Pat is also active in farmer advocacy through Iowa 4-H, CommonGround Iowa, and the ASA. Overall, these appointments signal a continued focus on reducing red tape, empowering producers, and delivering hands-on support to rural America. USDA Secretary Rollins is finally getting her team together.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings. U.S. equity futures rose on speculation that the levies could be more measured than feared. U.S. futures pointed to a gain of about 1% for the S&P 500 at the open, while reduced appetite for safer assets sent Treasuries lower. In Asia, Japan -0.2%. Hong Kong +0.9%. China +0.2%. India +1.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.4%.

Equities Friday and for the week:

— Shares of Bayer are slumping 7.5% after a jury in Georgia ordered the company to pay about $2.1 billion to a plaintiff who claimed its Roundup weedkiller caused cancer. The jury awarded $65 million in compensatory damages and $2 billion in punitive damages. This is one of the largest verdicts related to Roundup litigation to date. Bayer has announced its intention to appeal the decision, citing that it contradicts the substantial body of scientific evidence supporting the safety of glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup. U.S. litigation has already cost the German company about $10 billion, and has set aside an additional $5.9 billion for ongoing litigation, with over 60,000 cases still pending. Analysts expect that the verdict could be reduced or overturned on appeal, as has been the case with some previous large awards related to Roundup. Bayer has indicated that it may seek legislative changes to limit product liability lawsuits related to Roundup, and has even suggested it could stop selling the product if legal protections are not strengthened.

— Nasdaq pushes for market reforms. Nasdaq Inc. has hired Miller Strategies to lobby on policy initiatives aimed at revitalizing the market for small public companies, promoting initial public offerings (IPOs), enhancing market transparency, and reducing conflicts of interest in the proxy advisory industry.

— Debt ceiling deadline pushed to late summer. The Bipartisan Policy Center has released the first public estimate of the U.S. “X-date” — the point by which the debt ceiling must be raised to avoid default. The window falls between mid-July and early October, offering more time than earlier concerns of a June deadline. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to release its own forecast on Wednesday. The exact timing of the X-date is uncertain and depends on factors such as tax receipts, government spending, and the effectiveness of “extraordinary measures” employed by the Treasury Department to manage cash flows. The current national debt exceeds $36 trillion, necessitating congressional action to avoid default. The need for a 60-vote threshold in the Senate to pass debt ceiling legislation complicates the process, requiring bipartisan support.

Of note: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to include the debt limit increase in a larger reconciliation package. Senate Republicans are skeptical of that approach. President Trump, meanwhile, just wants the borrowing cap lifted quickly and doesn’t care about the method.

— Malanga: Fed holds steady, but time to prioritize growth. As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to maintain current policy settings at its latest meeting, citing ongoing inflation concerns, uncertainty around tariff policy, and a murky economic outlook. While Chair Powell signaled an increased openness to rate cuts and announced a slowdown in the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, his comments suggest a balanced focus between inflation control and supporting the broader economy, says Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics. He believes the Fed should now place greater emphasis on economic growth over inflation. Policy uncertainty is dampening money velocity, which monetary policy should counteract. While inflation remains above target, Malanga notes that price pressures are clearly easing. Energy prices are falling, which will help reduce transportation costs and, over time, feed into broader price moderation. Retail demand is softening, hinting at upcoming price cuts, while airfare and rent pressures appear to be abating as well. A weakening economy would further support disinflation.

While this would ultimately boost real incomes, Malanga says the labor market remains a key concern. Initial jobless claims haven’t shown significant deterioration yet, but the effects of DOGE-led government downsizing could begin to appear in March data. Growth in service employment is slowing, raising questions about whether companies will cut hours further or begin laying off workers — both of which would weigh on income growth. A modest pickup in goods-producing jobs offers only a slight counterbalance, Malanga notes, especially with residential construction and business investment still sluggish.

LaSalle Economics estimates first-quarter GDP growth to come in below 1% annually, with the risk of an even weaker spring if businesses start reducing inventories stockpiled in anticipation of tariffs. Fiscal tightening will continue to weigh on near-term growth, Malanga details, which is why he says private sector demand needs a boost. With government funding now secured through the summer, Malanga hopes the Senate can fast-track a tax package by mid-spring. Lower corporate taxes and full expensing of capital investments could help spur business spending, he observes.

Housing remains a critical issue. Malanga maintains that mortgage rates must fall below 6% and remain there to unlock supply and encourage demand. After four years of housing recession, sustainably lower rates could restore housing as a leading economic driver.

But it’s up to the Fed to make that happen, Malanga says. A benchmark rate cut of 75–100 basis points might be needed, potentially alongside a new round of quantitative easing. Ultimately, he concludes, the most urgent issue is timing: fiscal and monetary stimulus must be delivered soon. If not, Malanga worries that economic weakness could overwhelm any fiscal savings produced by DOGE.

AG MARKETS

— Ag markets today:

Grains weaker to open the week. Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but have weakened early this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents lower, winter wheat markets were 6 to 8 cents lower and spring wheat was 3 to 4 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index was around 135 points lower, and front-month crude oil futures were about 50 cents higher.
Supportive Cattle on Feed report. USDA’s Cattle on Feed report showed the March 1 feedlot inventory down 2.1% from year-ago ag 11.577 million head, as placements plunged 17.8% from year-ago during February and marketings dropped 8.9%. The data should be supportive for cattle futures, though some of the bullishness was already built into prices ahead of the report.
Cash hog fundamentals in pause mode. The CME lean hog index continues to hover just below the $90.00 level, with the latest quote down 32 cents to $88.88 as of March 20. The pork cutout firmed $1.00 to $96.86 on Friday, holding in the recent mid- to upper-$90.00 trading range.

— Ag trade: Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil or South Africa and tendered to buy 100,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat.

— U.S. and Russia revisit Black Sea grain deal amid navigation safety talks. Russia and the U.S. are discussing a potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a 2022 agreement aimed at ensuring safe merchant shipping and grain exports during the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the issue was on the agenda during U.S./Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, noting past commitments to Russia were left unfulfilled under the original deal. The initiative, brokered by Turkey and the U.N., had allowed nearly 33 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain exports before Russia exited the agreement in 2023, citing ongoing obstacles to its own food and fertilizer exports. While these exports aren’t under Western sanctions, Russia claims issues with payments, insurance, and logistics persist. Peskov said navigation safety remains a key concern and confirmed that President Trump initiated the conversation, with President Putin agreeing to engage. He also acknowledged a shared U.S./Russian interest in moving toward a settlement on the Ukraine conflict, though many complex issues remain unresolved.

— India lifts rice export curbs, offering relief to global food markets. India has eased its rice export restrictions, potentially alleviating food-price inflation that has strained many developing nations. As the world’s top rice exporter, India imposed curbs after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered panic buying and fears of global shortages. With those fears easing, the final restrictions have now been lifted. The move is expected to benefit countries hit hardest by food inflation, particularly in Africa — where South Africa anticipates rising food prices, and Nigeria has seen deadly incidents at free food distribution events.

— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Commodities for March 21 and weekly change

FARM POLICY

— Canada bolsters farm support amid Chinese tariffs on key exports. The Canadian government has unveiled new financial support for the agriculture sector in response to steep Chinese tariffs on canola, peas, pork, and seafood. Starting this year, the AgriStability payment cap will double to $6 million, and the compensation rate will rise from 80% to 90%. The move addresses fallout from China’s retaliatory tariffs — 100% on canola and peas, and 25% on pork and seafood — triggered by Canada’s levies on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum. Agriculture Minister Kody Blois called the tariffs “devastating” and pledged swift aid, with an estimated federal cost of C$108.7 million. Provincial governments may also accelerate payments under updated agreements. Premiers from key agriculture provinces, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, have voiced alarm over the tariffs’ potential impact on billions in export revenue.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil prices edge up amid Iran sanctions and Ukraine peace talks. Oil prices rose slightly in volatile trading on Monday as markets balanced new U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian exports with ongoing negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, which could lead to more Russian crude entering global markets. Brent crude gained 36 cents (0.5%) to reach $72.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 40 cents (0.6%) to $68.68.

— Oil prices rose for second week on U.S. sanctions and OPEC+ cuts. Oil prices ended higher on Friday, March 21, posting their strongest weekly gains since early January. Brent crude climbed 16 cents to $72.16 and WTI rose 21 cents to $68.28, up 2.1% and 1.6% for the week, respectively. The gains followed fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran, targeting Chinese refiners and vessels handling Iranian oil, which analysts say could significantly curb Iranian exports. UBS forecasts a potential drop of up to 1 million barrels per day. Prices were further supported by OPEC+’s decision to extend output cuts for seven members through mid-2026, despite a modest planned production increase in April. Market focus now turns to compliance by key producers including Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

CONGRESS

— Congress is in session until April 11: Crypto, nominations, and tax cut talks this week. As lawmakers return to Washington, a packed spring agenda awaits across financial and economic policy. Topics include:

Crypto legislation: Capitol Hill is abuzz with action on digital assets. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bipartisan GENIUS Act, while the House Financial Services Committee plans to mark up its STABLE Act in early April. Reconciliation of the two bills remains on the horizon.
Key nominations: The Senate will press ahead with confirmations. A Thursday hearing will vet three nominees for top financial posts, while others — including CFPB nominee Jonathan McKernan — still await floor action.
Regulatory shifts: The Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda continues, with renewed CFPB activity targeting cases tied to Comerica, FDATR, and student loans. At the FHFA, Director Bill Pulte has reshaped leadership at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, raising oversight questions.
Reconciliation and taxes: With an April 11 session deadline, Republicans are holding a flurry of closed-door meetings. House Ways and Means members are deep in tax bill discussions. Meanwhile, Senate Budget Republicans are consulting with the parliamentarian on scoring methods that could shape the outcome. Finance Committee GOP senators are also nearing key decisions on their tax plan. Link to The Week Ahead for more information about tax cuts and budget reconciliation .

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Schumer defiant amid backlash over spending bill support. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he has no intention of stepping down, despite mounting criticism from fellow Democrats over his reversal on a Republican-led stopgap spending bill. Speaking on Meet the Press, Schumer defended his decision to support the bill to avoid a government shutdown, calling it a “vote of principle” despite lacking major Democratic concessions. The bill passed 54–46, narrowly avoiding a shutdown, but stirred anger within the party. Critics like Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) accused the leadership of caving without gains and hinted at possible primary challenges — potentially from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

— Durbin retirement watch: Senate shake-up looms. Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) is expected to announce soon whether he’ll seek re-election in 2026. While Democrats are confident the Illinois seat will remain blue, Durbin’s potential retirement would spark a high-stakes succession battle — both within Illinois and Senate Democratic leadership. At 80, Durbin has held the whip role for 20 years and served in the Senate since 1996. Several state Democrats are already eyeing the seat should he step aside.

FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY

— U.S. turns to Brazil and “meat chicken” eggs to fight soaring prices. The U.S. is ramping up efforts to tackle its egg shortage crisis, nearly doubling imports from Brazil and reviewing regulations that currently ban the use of eggs from broiler chickens (those raised for meat) in human food, Reuters reports (link). These imported and broiler eggs wouldn’t land on grocery shelves, but they could be used in processed foods like cake mixes, ice cream, and salad dressings — freeing up more fresh eggs for consumers. However, food safety experts caution that relaxing standards could increase the risk of foodborne illness.

Since early 2022, bird flu has wiped out nearly 170 million U.S. birds, sending egg prices soaring. In response, the Trump administration rolled out a $1 billion plan in February to stabilize the market, which includes disease control, vaccine research, and expanded egg imports from countries like Brazil, Turkey, and South Korea.

Some U.S. states are also pausing cage-free egg laws to help manage supply constraints.

Meanwhile, FDA is considering a renewed petition from the National Chicken Council to allow broiler eggs in food production — potentially turning millions of wasted eggs into useful resources.

HPAI/BIRD FLU

— Avian flu hits Marion Island, threatens key bird populations. A severe outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has been confirmed on Marion Island, a critical sub-Antarctic habitat between South Africa and Antarctica. The island, home to nearly half of the world’s wandering albatross population, is experiencing significant avian losses.

Meanwhile, bird flu has also been detected in a sheep in northern England, the first known case of its kind in the world, Britain’s government said, adding to the growing list of mammals infected by the disease.

— Bird flu cases on American farms are down sharply, with fewer chickens being culled and a slowdown in dairy farm infections. However, experts warn the threat isn’t over. Migrating wild birds could drive a resurgence this spring, and new cases have emerged in cats and live poultry markets. Though infections dropped from over 23 million birds in January to just 2 million in March, hundreds of dairy farms still report sick cows. USDA is investing $500 million in biosecurity and funding vaccine research to prepare for what may come next.

CHINA

— China this week: Key forums and corporate reports. Top global business leaders, including Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kallenius and executives from FedEx, Saudi Aramco, and Siemens, are gathering in Beijing for the China Development Forum amid falling foreign investment and U.S. tariff tensions. Some are expected to meet President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, the Boao Forum, dubbed “Asia’s Davos,” kicks off Tuesday in Hainan with a focus on “Asia in the Changing World.” Bangladesh’s Muhammad Yunus is slated to speak before meeting Xi in Beijing.

On the corporate front, China’s earnings season ramps up this week with reports from major players. BYD and China Telecom lead off early in the week, followed by the nation’s three largest airlines — China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern. The week wraps up with earnings from banking giants ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China on Friday.

— China pursues dual strategy to boost investment and regional influence. China is ramping up efforts on two key fronts to strengthen its economic foundation and regional influence: attracting foreign investment and enhancing diplomatic ties with neighboring countries. This twin-pronged approach reflects Beijing’s broader strategy to navigate global economic uncertainties and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Bolstering foreign investment: Faced with slowing economic growth and a changing global investment landscape, China is intensifying initiatives to stabilize and expand foreign investment. Authorities are focusing on opening new sectors to international capital, improving the domestic business climate, and actively promoting opportunities abroad. One of the most significant developments is China’s move to expand market access for foreign companies. Key industries such as telecommunications, biotechnology, and healthcare — once tightly controlled — are now being opened up. Notably, 13 foreign-invested companies have recently been granted permission to operate in value-added telecom services, and more than 40 foreign-backed biotechnology projects have been launched.

In addition, the government is working to enhance the business environment for foreign enterprises. Efforts include addressing long-standing complaints about regulatory ambiguity, unequal treatment, and market barriers. These reforms are aimed at creating a more level playing field, where foreign-funded companies can compete more effectively with domestic firms.

To support these efforts, China is launching international promotion campaigns to attract investment, particularly in high-tech sectors and green industries. These initiatives signal Beijing’s commitment to fostering innovation-driven growth and achieving its long-term sustainability goals.

Strengthening regional ties: Parallel to its domestic economic efforts, China is also seeking to deepen regional cooperation, especially with Japan and South Korea. In a recent meeting in Tokyo, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in talks with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts. The discussions focused on promoting future-oriented collaboration and reviving stalled diplomatic and economic initiatives.

A major topic was the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Beijing is pushing to resume negotiations on this trilateral trade deal, which has the potential to significantly boost economic integration in Northeast Asia. The foreign ministers also addressed regional security concerns, including North Korea’s nuclear program.

This diplomatic outreach may also serve a strategic purpose. According to reporting by Nikkei, Beijing views current U.S. foreign policy dynamics as an opportunity to potentially exploit divisions within the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance. By promoting closer economic and diplomatic ties with Tokyo and Seoul, China could increase its regional influence and reshape the power balance in East Asia.

A coordinated strategy: China’s dual strategy — reforming domestically to attract investment while building stronger ties with regional neighbors — highlights its adaptive approach to a complex global environment. As the world grapples with economic slowdowns, geopolitical realignments, and rising protectionism, Beijing appears intent on positioning itself as both an open market and a central player in regional diplomacy.

Bottom line: By focusing on both inward investment and outward engagement, China is working to secure its economic future while asserting a more influential role in the region.

BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR

— Homan defends deportation of Venezuelans to El Salvador, citing gang ties. On ABC’s This Week, border czar Tom Homan addressed concerns about Venezuelans deported to El Salvador without due process, despite family claims they weren’t gang members. “They can make those claims, and of course, we have the information that says the complete opposite,” Homan said. When pressed by host Jon Karl to release that evidence, Homan declined, citing pending court litigation. He emphasized trust in law enforcement’s judgment, noting the individuals were identified as members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

— IRS-ICE data deal sparks privacy concerns. The IRS is nearing a controversial agreement with ICE to share taxpayer data in efforts to locate undocumented immigrants, according to the Washington Post. The potential deal would mark a major shift in the traditionally confidential treatment of tax information. IRS officials warn the move could misuse a rarely invoked privacy law meant to assist in building criminal cases, not enforcing penalties. The IRS has historically assured undocumented immigrants — about half of whom file taxes — that doing so wouldn’t expose them to immigration enforcement.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Low pressure system brings snow across the Great Lakes today, severe thunderstorms and heavy rain across the Deep South this morning, and a
quick round of moderate snowfall for Maine tonight... ...Wet weather across northwestern Washington state today is expected to taper off on Tuesday... ...Well above average, warm to hot early Spring temperatures will expand over the western/central U.S. this week with numerous record highs near the West Coast and Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

KEY DATES IN MARCH

25: USDA Cold Storage report | USDA Food Price Outlook
27: USDA Hogs & Pigs report
27: MLB Opening Day
28: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
29: Last day of Ramadan
31: USDA Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and Rice Stocks reports | Ag Prices

LINKS